For reasons I don’t entirely understand, my post on Tim Horton’s Roll Up the Rim to Win odds is (at least in RUTRTW season) one of the most popular pages on this site. You foreigners got no idea what I’m talking about? Ask Wikipedia about this Canadian coffee drinking institution.
I recently got an email from Brian G. Rudneski. He’s an engineer, and he’s been tracking the coffee drinking and contest winning habits of himself and a few friends:
Long story short, my coffee consumption doubles during RUTR and I’ve always bitched about not winning. This year I decided to keep stats during the entire contest to see what the true odds of winning are. Wouldn’t you know it, at this point we are at about .97 in 9 odds of winning after about 200 coffees.
He kindly sent along the spreadsheet he kept. With his permission, I’ve posted it to this site. His conclusions?
- Odds of winning anything: 23 wins in 214 cups, or 10.7%
- Stuff they won: 18 coffees and 5 doughnuts
- Litres of coffee you should drink to win: 3.3 L
You may also be interested in this amusing Rick Mercer expose (MOV), which explains where in the country you need to be to win the RAV 4. British Columbians, you’re SOL.