February 3rd, 2007

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Politics, Science
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Russia is Shrinking by 700,000 People a Year

Did you know that? I knew certain European and Asian countries’ populations were in decline, but I had no idea Russia’s decline was so steep. I read about it in a column by Gwynne Dyer in the latest issue of the Georgia Straight:

This has been causing something close to panic in the Kremlin, where they see the increasingly empty spaces of Siberia and the Russian Far East as a standing temptation to an overcrowded China. (That may be paranoid, but you hear it in Moscow all the time.)

“The most acute problem in modern-day Russia is demography,” President Vladimir Putin said last May, and he announced measures even more sweeping than those in France to get the birthrate up. Starting this month, Russian women who give birth to a second child will get an immediate cash bonus of 250,000 rubles ($9,500). That’s a small fortune in an economy where the minimum wage is just over $300 a month.

Apparently the causes are multitude. This Wikipedia article discusses the problems of alcohol, smoking, gender imbalance and the fact that there are apparently more Russian abortions than births.

Comments: 6 Responses so far

Heather
February 4th, 2007
10:40 am

Similarly, there’s an excellent article in the current issue of the New Yorker about Vladimir Putin, the Duma and their relationship with news organizations in Russia. Definitely worth a read for anyone trying to make sense of what’s actually going on in Russia these days, and how they got there.

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Michael Klassen
February 4th, 2007
5:48 pm

Scenes like these might be an indicator:

http://www.englishrussia.com/?p=403

The vodka-soaked lifestyle is not really condusive to high birth rates.

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Roshan
February 4th, 2007
9:46 pm

It is interesting to read about Russia but I think the country still has the shadow of communism & the KGB past covering them. I actually find Russians friendly people and I got to know quite a few of them.
By the way, where is their fav destination now tht they r disappearing from Russia?

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Sticky
February 5th, 2007
10:23 am

Hmm, $9,500 for 2nd child wont be good for the economy, Russia should just give 10 Indians Russian citizenship - problem solved.

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Ryan Cousineau
February 5th, 2007
1:02 pm

Roshan: not sure if you’re kidding or not, but these disappearing Russians are going to graveyards.

More precisely, they’re not being born, either. It’s a demographic thing, with a not-that-long lifespan combining with birth rates far below replacement. Also, there’s not much immigration.

The other odd fact about Russian demographics is the massive male-female lifespan disparity. 60.5 vs 74 years in favour of women.

It’s so substantial that some people have (only half-jokingly) suggested that the woman shortage in China may be solved if the Chinese start looking to Russia for brides. I haven’t checked to see if the demographics are actually sensible for that to happen.

But Russia qualifies as one of those great demographic freak shows of the 21st century, along with China and Japan.

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Ryan Cousineau
February 5th, 2007
1:21 pm

Sticky: whether Russia can afford it or not is one question, but this sort of program has done great things for France’s birth rate (though their system focuses more on stuff like maternity leave and benefits on the tax side).

Immigration is a classic solution to demographic woes; it’s how this continent was populated, and Canada currently keeps its population growing with immigrants making up birth rate shortages.

There are limits: it’s impolitic to say so, but first world countries are generally able to skim the cream of the developing world: educated and ambitious people willing to make a big life-change to better themselves.

If you’re Russia, you’re not likely to attract the very best immigrants. If you’re letting a lot of people immigrate, you’re likely going to see a reduced marginal value of your immigrants. Maybe it all works out, maybe it doesn’t.

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