There’s a back lane behind our house. It’s an unusual feature on the west coast, and presumably it’s a reflection of the neighbourhood being at least a hundred years old. As children have done for at least that long, there’s a couple of kids who haul nets, sticks and a tennis ball into the lane to play hockey. They’ve even chalked out a little ice rink, with faceoff circles and a centre ice line.
As you probably know, the NHL playoffs are winding down. In fact, if Detroit beats the Pittsburgh Penguins tomorrow night, they’ll hold aloft their fifth Stanley Cup in 12 years–a remarkable feat.
The lane is sloped, so you pay a price when you miss the more southerly net. I instantly recognized this as a kid’s decent interpretation of the Penguins’ logo, which appears at centre ice in Pittsburgh’s Mellon Arena:
Here’s another view, for some perspective. Clearly the kids are pretending to be Crosby and Malkin, not Zetterberg and Datsyuk.
I was a pretty solitary kid growing up. I preferred to tape out a goal on one wall of our two-car carport, and shoot tennis balls at it from the far side. If a ball took a particularly bad bounce, it ended up on the steep, wooded slope between our house and the neighbours. I had to psych myself up to retrieve those wayward balls. The neighbours had a surly Doberman named Sasha, and she didn’t care for children.
I participated in a playoff pool draft tonight, so I had to map out my predictions of who would make it to the finals. As you might imagine, it’s as much about picking the teams as it is the players. A mediocre player who plays 22 post-season games is more valuable than a great player who only plays seven:
Yes, I think the Canucks will beat St. Louis and fall to Detroit in the second round.
Of course, these things are all about probabilities and mitigating risk. It’s likely that a dark horse will emerge and unpredictably make its well deep into the playoffs. But that’s difficult to guess correctly, so I went with likely outcomes and I’m hoping for the best. Here are the players I ended up with:
ZETTERBERG
MALKIN
SEMIN
M. GREEN
HAVLAT
CHARA
KRONWALL
RYDER
BURROWS
HOLMSTROM
GUERIN
GETZLAF
UPDATE: Had I known about Rinkology’s fancy bracket creator (thanks to James for the pointer), I would have used that yesterday instead of plain old pen and paper. Here’s a more legible edition (click for a larger version):
I was talking to somebody about this morning. I doubt they will, but I really have no idea. Less idea than usual when it comes to the Canucks. So, let us vote:
At the start of the year I made a couple of predictions regarding the Canucks. One was that Mats Sundin wouldn’t sign with them–I was obviously wrong about that. The second was that they wouldn’t make the playoffs. For a while there I thought the team was making a fool of me on that front, too.
But like a teenage boyfriend, they never fail to disappoint. This the Canucks team I’ve come to expect after twenty-odd years of fandom. Mediocrity, thy home is Vancouver.
A Low-Hanging Scapegoat
There are plenty of fans calling for Alain Vigneault’s head. Here’s something I’ve come to realize about NHL coaching: when the team does well, the players receive all the praise. When the team falters, the coach’s head is the first one on the chopping block.
On the one hand–to mix my metaphors–the coach is the lowest hanging scapegoat. He doesn’t cost as much as the players, is immediately replaceable and usually isn’t adored by the fans.
On the other hand, the average fan has very little insight into what the coach does. As witha team’s general manager, we get a tip of the iceberg view of an NHL coach. We see him behind the bench, watch him pick lines and observe how the players execute his strategy. We have no view into what happens off-ice, at practice, and only have a vague sense of his coaching during a game. We don’t see how Vigneault spends the majority of his time.
The first critique of a coach is often that the players appear “unmotivated”. I always find that silly. These guys make, on average, more than two million dollars a season. They are elite professionals–the best in the world. Does a brain surgeon need motivation to excise a tumour? Does a trial lawyer need motivation to win a case? If the players can’t get “up” for a game, they have only themselves to blame.
About half the forwards are playing well offensively at the moment. The Sedins are reliable as ever, Kesler and Burrows are shouldering more than their fair share, and Hordichuk and Johnson are ably filling their roles. Everybody else has been sub-par, and the team’s defence has looked pretty shoddy. Even the usually-reliable Willie Mitchell has been coughing up the puck in the defensive zone.
Truth be told, I have no idea what’s wrong with the team. Any suggestions?
I’m very glad Sundin wasn’t signed for next year at $10 million, as per the initial offer. If he sucks over the next six months, the Canucks will be well rid of him. Still, even if he only scores at a, say, 45-50 points for a season pace, that’s a handy player to have around. So, at worst, the team gets a little better and loses nothing (in terms of cap space or assets) in the long term.
That sounds a bit naive, doesn’t it?
Thus far, the Sundin experiment has been pretty miserable. After nine games with the team, consider the numbers:
He’s got three points, two goals (one into an open net on the powerplay) and an assist.
He’s taken eight minor penalties.
His +/- is at -6.
Compare that with the cheaper Brendan Shanahan, another mid-year pick-up who is three years older than Sundin. In five games, he’s got three goals and an assist.
Even if you ignore those numbers, Sundin has clearly not found last year’s playing form. He’s always the slowest player on the ice, he consistently shuns the “dirty areas” in front of the net, and he struggles defensively.
Even if Sundin does find his game, the Canucks face an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Calgary more or less has the division locked up, so Vancouver needs to battle to secure sixth spot, thus avoiding a first round series against San Jose or Detroit.
A Soft Bunch
And even if they do make the playoffs, I’m worried about the team’s make-up. Consider the team’s top-six forwards: Sedin, Sedin, Demitra, Wellwood, Pyatt, Sundin and Kesler. After Kesler and Pyatt, that’s a pretty soft bunch. And grit becomes more important in the post-season, not less.
I’d much rather the team tank it than stagger through the rest of the season in ninth or tenth spot. If the Canucks are obviously sellers at the trading deadline, then the could get very good value for their veteran defensemen (assuming they waive their no-trade causes) and the likes of Taylor Pyatt and Pavel Demitra. That would put them in a better position for next year. Instead, they’re liable to barely miss the playoffs. Looking back, I see that that’s what I was hoping for last July.
Jeffrey recently created this nifty chart, based on Wikipedia data, showing the nationalities of drafted NHL players over the past 40 years or so:
It’s interesting to note the increase in American-born players around 1999. I wonder what happened during that period? Also, I was struck by the declining number of players from Russia. Their development system has gone downhill since the end of the Cold War. Additionally, I gather that Russian players can live pretty high on the hog if they stay home.
Speaking of hockey, how about last night’s game? I’m cheering for the Penguins. There is, of course, a sense of inevitability about the Red Wings’ victory, but it’s nice to see the series go longer. Detroit is such a dominating team–I’m impressed that Pittsburgh has managed to eke out two victories.
It’s circumstances like these that restore my faith in karma. Super-pest and spotlight seeker Sean Avery suffered a lacerated spleen in Tuesday’s game against Pittsburgh:
Avery was injured during Tuesday night’s 5-3 loss from a hit, possibly in the first period, but played throughout the game despite worsening pain.
He took seven shifts in the first period, five in the second, and seven in the third. He spent 4 minutes, 58 seconds on the ice in the final frame — only 10 seconds fewer than the first.
I wouldn’t wish serious injury on anybody, but Avery plays like an asshat of the highest order. As such, the 2008 playoffs just got a little nicer. Thanks to James for the news.
I mostly wrote this post so that I could make a bad pun in the title.
Half the fun of watching sports is speculation. Before tonight’s season opener, I thought I’d better make a couple of predictions about the 2007-2008 edition of the Vancouver Canucks. Over at the Canucks Hockey Blog, we see that there are plenty of questions to answer:
It goes without saying that Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison have to produce more, and at least to start the season, the Canucks are relying in large part on the youngsters to provide some offense. Can Ryan Shannon and Ryan Kesler, both playing with Naslund, and Mason Raymond, playing with the Sedins, answer the bell?
I’d add to that two more:
Can the defense score as often as they did last year? Yes, I think so.
Will Luongo have as good a year as last year? I can’t see why not.
Plenty of pundits point out that the Canucks haven’t added any legitimate scoring threats. They’re right. But here’s what I figure: it’s a long season, and there’s a ton of parity in the Canucks’ division and the league as a whole.
Neither Great Nor Horrible
Given their strong defense, quality coaching and great goaltending, the team is unlikely to stumble badly out of the gate. They’re unlikely to be either great or horrible. GM Dave Nonis has some extra assets at defense, and can convert one of them to a legitimate scorer when he needs to.
I say the team plays decent hockey all season, Nonis adds one or two scorers at the trade deadline, and repeats last year’s achievement. In short, they win one round of playoffs. The teams ahead of them–Detroit, San Jose and Anaheim–are too good to get much farther than that.
Holmstrom skews to the dirtier end of the Lady Byng scale, so he probably had that coming. I’ve watched it a couple of times, and while Pronger does raise his elbow (and deserves to be penalized), it’s really the combined inertia of the two Ducks (heh) that does the real damage.
If so, please drop me an email. Now that the Canucks have made the playoffs, I have certain web-based TV requirements in Malta which a Slingbox (and its generous) owner can fulfill. I’m willing to trade goods, services or cold, hard cash in exchange.
